“After another shocking week, latest Politico Eye 10-day polling averages survey

shows Dr. Lulume Bayigga ahead by 43%”.

KAMPALA  –  The Democratic Party Presidential elections remain a knife-edge

race 5 days before delegates go to Mbarara, despite Dr. Lulume Bayigga enjoying

one of his most encouraging spells of opinion polling since becoming DP

Presidential candidate barely 3 weeks ago.

During yet another momentous week that began with a suspected disqualification

of other candidates, the latest Politico Eye 10-day polling averages survey shows

Lulume increasing his lead to 38.5%.

While still within error margins, that is an improvement of the 0.9% edge Lulume held last week and a significant shift from the statistical dead heat of three weeks ago before the presidential candidates nominated at DP offices at Balintuma Road.

Polling suggests delegates, by large majorities, believe Lulume won that encounter –when Mao, the incumbent and the NRM government minister, effectively lost self-sabotaged when he opted to join and serve in the NRM government as the Minister for Justice and Constitution Affairs.

The Kampala Inquirer nationwide polls on Saturday showed the two candidates (Lulume and Elitia) tied at 46% – actually a slight improvement for Lulume on the same survey taken before the nominations, when Lulume recorded a one-point lead.

Other online polling has been more positive for Lulume. A dominated DP members social media poll – based on more than 1,000 respondents – gave him an advantage, 65%, the biggest he had established since declaring his candidature at the nomination day.

There are other underlying trends giving Lulume reasons to be cheerful, albeit cautiously. One is his buoyant performance in battleground regions, the key arenas in determining the result of the 30th May National Delegates elections.

In a separate poll made by independent survey, with two candidates deadlocked nationally showed Lulume with a four-point advantage against the DP Vice President- Northern Uganda, Elitia Elia 50%-46% In West Nile, a swing sub-region that many commentators identify as the most important of all in reaching the 139 electoral voteswhich are very important.

The survey is supported by a separate poll from The Free Minds which shows Lulume in a comfortable lead.

Moreover, the Make DP Great Again poll gives Lulume leads in two sub-region battlegrounds in Buganda region, Masaka and Wakiso, 5% and 1% respectively. Capturing all eleven districts in Buganda – sometimes termed the “quarter-guard” of DP politics in Uganda – would be enough to secure Lulume a tiny victory without him needing to win the West Nile sub region where he is statistically tied with Elitia Elia.

Yet amid the optimism, there is a note of caution for the Buikwe South legislator; Mao significantly over-performed in Karamoja, Sebei and Lango sub regions previously where he stood with Lulume at the NDC in Katomi, capturing all three sub regions in 2015.

Nevertheless, polls detect a change from the previous NDC elections in Katomi that is working in Lulume’s favour – and which is whittling away the Mao’s assumed advantage in those regions, where Lulume garnered some votes in 2015 despite foul play and other irregularities.

Kamya Kasozi, the Politico Eye’s chief polling analyst, called Lulume’s lead in Buganda while tying with Elitia in West Nile “a puzzle” but said it was consistent with most other surveys.

Over the last month, a lot of these polls show Dr. Lulume doing relatively poorly nationwide, but doing well in the Southern battleground sub regions,” he wrote.  What’s clear is that recent results from higher-quality polls are very different from what was predicted in 2015 between Mao and Lulume race. If true, it would suggest that Mr Mao’s advantage in the Democratic Party, relative to the popular vote, has declined significantly since 2020.”

Lulume has one other apparent reason for self-congratulation; DP members’ rejection of the Mao-M7 Cooperation Agreement. The Mao-NRM Cooperation Agreement remains the single biggest issue in the eyes of most delegates, surveys show – many DP members feel very uncomfortable with Mao’s association with the NRM and his assumed ministerial position.